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Cake day: February 7th, 2025

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  • The risk I see with this is that the strategy rests on the assumption of states acting in rational self-interest. While this is generally a reasonable assumption to make, it has become abundantly clear that it’s not always true.

    Hypothetically, if China came under control of a megalomaniac willing to compromise Chinese interests and safety (or unwilling to consider that risk) for the sake of nationalist ambitions to “reclaim” Taiwan, things could get ugly. Would the US actually retaliate? Would it fight open war against a nuclear power headed by someone willing to cut their whole country’s nose to spite their face?

    Conversely, if the US came under control of a foreign asset (or useful idiot) willing to strike a deal with China for cheap access to the chips they need for their American Intelligence, selling out Taiwan in the process and probably getting fucked over in the process, it might allow them to entrench so deeply that even subsequent presidents would have a hard time dislodging them without, again, risking nuclear war.

    I don’t think either scenario is likely, but I also didn’t think the US would let Pedonald run for another term, let alone elect him, so maybe my judgement just sucks.







  • Also generating subtitles for my mother’s foreign films I guess?

    You mean mapping learned patterns (speech) to other patterns (words)? Yes, that’s actually what it’s really good at.

    Of course, if those films invented completely new words, it would be out of its depth. Weird pronunciations may also produce weird text. It might get things wrong either way occasionally.

    But if it’s within the boundaries of its training material, it’ll generally produce reasonable output, and in that context, the occasional aberration doesn’t matter as much (particularly if the human brain can compensate).

    Just don’t ask it to generate anything where factuality matters.









  • writing great code manually is a core skill whose time has passed.

    If you’re saying people will no longer have to learn to code…

    This is not the death of expertise. The LLM is fast. You are slow, but you carry with you a lifetime of experience, judgment calls, and understanding.

    …then where the fuck is that expertise gonna come from?

    You are also (hopefully) much less prone to hallucination and being mislead by bad or malicious inputs, and are accountable to yourself, your teammates, and to Proton in a way a model can never be. Together you can do far more, far faster than either can do alone.

    AI “hallucination” is the product of something that doesn’t know what it’s doing accidentally doing something wrong despite all training in appearing competent. To correct and counteract that, you need people who actually learned what is correct and know their shit. In essence: you need people with experience in writing good code.

    Even if we accepted the premise that needing to adopt AI would be the only way to survive, this logic is so full of holes that I’m wondering whether an LLM wrote it or whether that’s just the best logic Butler can deliver after outsourcing his thinking to bullshit machines.


  • They didn’t elect people to positions, because they thought that would lead to popularity contests doninated by the wealthy (🤔).

    We should note that the body of eligible (adult male) citizens was far from representative. If 20% of the population were slaves or other non-citizens (leaving 80% citizens), half were women (leaving 40%) and 25% were children (leaving 30%), 70% of the population were unrepresented.

    And that’s for the more democratic cities like Athens; oligarchic ones might well implement wealth requirements for full citizenship and some like Sparta were particularly draconic with limting membership (to the point of self-destruction when their citizen body dwindled and they refused to admit new Spartiates).

    (Also, Generals actually were elected, but that makes sense since you probably don’t want to randomly allot some guy that might or might not have the skills to coordinate army movement and activities, or might not even be wealthy enough to serve as hoplite themselves because armour is expensive.)